about 4.1% of the exam content - about 90 minutes - 14 practice questions
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Evaluating status is the discipline of knowing where you actually are, not where the plan said you
would be, and not where the crew chief feels you are. It has two halves. The first is arithmetic:
earned value management (EVM), which converts progress into dollars so schedule and cost
can be compared on the same scale. The second is visual and behavioral: burn charts, cumulative flow,
information radiators, and the honest conversations they provoke. The exam tests both, and it tests the
EVM formulas hard.
At the six-month status date, actual cost sits above earned value (a negative cost variance)
and earned value sits below planned value (a negative schedule variance): the retrofit is both over
budget and behind schedule.
The three measurements everything is built from
Planned value (PV): the budgeted cost of the work scheduled to be done by
now. What the baseline said you would have accomplished.
Earned value (EV): the budgeted cost of the work actually done. Computed
as EV = BAC x percent complete. This is the value of what exists, priced at plan
rates.
Actual cost (AC): what you actually spent to produce that work.
BAC (budget at completion) is the total cost baseline. The trick to every EVM question
is the same: EV is always the first term in a variance, and always the numerator in an index. Everything
else follows.
The formula table
Measure
Formula
How to read the result
Cost variance (CV)
EV − AC
Negative = over budget
Schedule variance (SV)
EV − PV
Negative = behind schedule
Cost performance index (CPI)
EV / AC
Below 1.0 = over budget. CPI 0.80 means you
get 80 cents of work per dollar spent
Schedule performance index (SPI)
EV / PV
Below 1.0 = behind schedule
EAC (variance is typical)
BAC / CPI
Current cost performance continues to the
end. The default assumption
EAC (variance is atypical)
AC + (BAC − EV)
The overrun was a one-time
event; remaining work will run at plan
EAC (cost and schedule performance both drive the remaining work)
AC + (BAC − EV) / (CPI x SPI)
Remaining
work is affected by both cost and schedule performance
Estimate to complete (ETC)
EAC − AC
What the rest will cost from here
Variance at completion (VAC)
BAC − EAC
Negative = forecast overrun
TCPI (to BAC)
(BAC − EV) / (BAC − AC)
Efficiency required on the
remaining work to still land on the original budget
TCPI (to EAC)
(BAC − EV) / (EAC − AC)
Efficiency required to land on
the revised forecast
A worked GCHS example
A 12-unit accessibility retrofit has BAC = 500,000 dollars. At the six-month mark: PV = 250,000,
EV = 220,000, AC = 275,000.
CV = 220,000 − 275,000 = −55,000: over budget by 55,000.
SV = 220,000 − 250,000 = −30,000: behind schedule by 30,000 of work.
CPI = 220,000 / 275,000 = 0.80: 80 cents of value per dollar spent.
SPI = 220,000 / 250,000 = 0.88: running at 88% of planned pace.
TCPI to BAC = (500,000 − 220,000) / (500,000 − 275,000) = 280,000 / 225,000 =
1.24: the remaining work must run 24% more efficiently than plan to still
hit 500,000, which, given a project running at 0.80, is not credible.
Key points
Anything negative is bad; any index below 1.0 is bad.
A TCPI far above the current CPI is the mathematical way of saying the budget is gone. Say so
early.
SPI is a poor late-project indicator: as work finishes, EV converges on PV and SPI drifts toward
1.0 even on a project that finished late. Use the critical path for schedule truth near the end.
Schedule variance is expressed in dollars of work, not days. Converting it to days
requires the schedule model.
Variance analysis versus trend analysis
Variance analysis asks how far off plan you are at this instant.
Trend analysis asks which direction the number is moving over several periods. One data
point tells you a story; three tell you the truth. A CPI of 0.96 is unremarkable, unless it was 1.02 two
months ago and 0.99 last month, in which case something structural is degrading and the trend is the
finding, not the value.
The project management plan sets control thresholds: the variance levels that trigger
action. When a variance crosses one, the plan already tells you what to do; the tested behavior is
consult the plan and follow it, not invent a response or escalate reflexively. And remember the
data hierarchy: raw work performance data (hours charged, units installed) becomes
work performance information once analyzed in context (CPI, SPI, forecasts), which becomes
work performance reports when packaged for a specific audience.
Situational tell
When a question shows an adverse variance, the tested first move is almost never “tell the
sponsor” or “submit a change request.” It is determine the cause.
Analyze, then decide, then communicate, then change control if required. Escalation is the last resort,
not the reflex.
Adaptive status: radiators, burn charts, and flow
Adaptive teams measure status with visible, low-ceremony artifacts rather than monthly reports.
Information radiators: big visible charts posted where the team and stakeholders
walk past them. The point is that nobody has to request status; it is ambient. A task board in the
GCHS field office is a radiator.
Iteration and release burndown: remaining work trending toward zero;
burnup adds a separate total-scope line so growth is visible rather than hidden.
Cumulative flow diagram (CFD): stacked bands showing how many items sit in each
workflow state over time. A widening band is a bottleneck: work is arriving faster
than it is leaving. A flat completed band means nothing is finishing. CFDs make queues visible in a
way a burndown cannot.
WIP limits: caps on how many items may be in a state at once. Limiting work in
progress shortens cycle time, because a shorter queue means each item waits less. Teams that start
everything finish nothing.
Cycle time is how long an item takes from when work begins to when it is done;
lead time runs from when the request arrives to when it is done, so it includes the
wait in the backlog. Lead time is what the customer experiences.
AI-assisted analytics increasingly flag emerging variances from historical patterns before a human sees
them, and sustainability reporting is being folded into status: energy performance of completed units,
diverted-waste tonnage, and benefits actually realized. Distinguish leading indicators
(predictive: defect rates, cycle time trend) from lagging indicators (confirmatory: final cost, units delivered). Steering a project requires leading indicators; lagging ones only tell you
how it ended.
Do not do this
Do not accept percent-complete numbers the team estimates by feel: the classic ninety-percent-done
task that stays ninety percent done for six weeks. Tie earned value to objective rules: a fixed formula
such as 0/100 or 50/50, verified milestones, or a definition of done. Status you cannot defend is not
status.
Practice Questions
1. A project has BAC = 500,000 dollars. At month six, PV = 250,000, EV = 220,000, and AC = 275,000. What is the cost variance?
minus 25,000 dollars
minus 30,000 dollars
minus 55,000 dollars
plus 25,000 dollars
Answer: c. CV = EV - AC = 220,000 - 275,000 = -55,000 dollars, meaning the project is over budget by 55,000. The -30,000 answer is the schedule variance (EV - PV), a very common mix-up; remember that cost variance compares earned value against money actually spent.
2. Using the same data, PV = 250,000, EV = 220,000, AC = 275,000, what is the schedule variance?
minus 25,000 dollars
minus 30,000 dollars
minus 55,000 dollars
plus 30,000 dollars
Answer: b. SV = EV - PV = 220,000 - 250,000 = -30,000 dollars, so 30,000 dollars worth of scheduled work has not been earned. Note that schedule variance is expressed in dollars of work, not in days; converting it to calendar time requires the schedule model.
3. With EV = 220,000 and AC = 275,000, what is the cost performance index, and what does it mean?
0.80: the project is earning 80 cents of value per dollar spent
0.88: the project is 12 percent behind schedule because it earned less than was planned
1.20: the project is 20 percent under budget because earned value exceeds actual cost
1.25: the project is earning 1.25 dollars per dollar spent
Answer: a. CPI = EV / AC = 220,000 / 275,000 = 0.80, meaning every dollar spent has produced only 80 cents of budgeted work. The 1.25 answer inverts the ratio (AC / EV), and 0.88 is the schedule performance index, which uses planned value rather than actual cost.
4. With EV = 220,000 and PV = 250,000, what is the schedule performance index?
1.14
1.09
0.80
0.88
Answer: d. SPI = EV / PV = 220,000 / 250,000 = 0.88, so the project is progressing at 88 percent of the planned pace. The 0.80 answer is the cost performance index, which divides earned value by actual cost instead of by planned value.
5. BAC = 500,000, EV = 220,000, AC = 275,000, CPI = 0.80. Assuming current cost performance continues, what is the estimate at completion?
555,000 dollars
625,000 dollars
400,000 dollars
500,000 dollars
Answer: b. When the variance is typical and expected to continue, EAC = BAC / CPI = 500,000 / 0.80 = 625,000 dollars. The 555,000 answer uses the atypical formula AC + (BAC - EV) = 275,000 + 280,000, which assumes the overrun was a one-time event and the rest of the work will run at plan.
6. BAC = 500,000, EV = 220,000, AC = 275,000. The overrun was caused by a one-time hurricane-driven material price spike that will not repeat. What is the most appropriate EAC?
555,000 dollars
500,000 dollars
672,700 dollars
625,000 dollars
Answer: a. An atypical, non-recurring variance calls for EAC = AC + (BAC - EV) = 275,000 + (500,000 - 220,000) = 275,000 + 280,000 = 555,000 dollars. Using BAC / CPI = 625,000 would wrongly project the one-time spike across all remaining work.
7. BAC = 500,000, AC = 275,000, and the typical-variance EAC is 625,000 dollars. What is the estimate to complete (ETC)?
125,000 dollars
275,000 dollars
350,000 dollars
625,000 dollars
Answer: c. ETC = EAC - AC = 625,000 - 275,000 = 350,000 dollars still needed to finish the work. The 125,000 answer is the variance at completion, not the estimate to complete, a common mix-up between the two "remaining" figures.
8. BAC = 500,000 and the typical-variance EAC is 625,000 dollars. What is the variance at completion (VAC), and what does it mean?
Minus 125,000 dollars, the project is forecast to overrun the original budget
Minus 55,000 dollars, the current cost variance
Minus 30,000 dollars, the current schedule variance
Plus 125,000 dollars, the project is forecast to finish under budget
Answer: a. VAC = BAC - EAC = 500,000 - 625,000 = -125,000 dollars, a forecast overrun if performance does not improve. VAC looks forward to the whole project, while CV and SV describe only the variance measured so far.
9. BAC = 500,000, EV = 220,000, AC = 275,000, and the typical-variance EAC is 625,000. What is TCPI calculated against the revised EAC?
1.24
0.88
1.00
0.80
Answer: d. TCPI to EAC = (BAC - EV) / (EAC - AC) = (500,000 - 220,000) / (625,000 - 275,000) = 280,000 / 350,000 = 0.80, exactly matching the current CPI, which makes sense because the revised forecast already assumes performance continues unchanged. The 1.24 figure is TCPI measured against the original BAC instead, a much harder bar to clear.
10. BAC = 500,000, EV = 220,000, AC = 275,000, CPI = 0.80, SPI = 0.88. Both cost and schedule performance are expected to keep affecting the remaining work. Which EAC formula applies, and what is the result?
AC + (BAC minus EV) / (CPI x SPI) = about 672,700 dollars
BAC = 500,000 dollars
BAC / CPI = 625,000 dollars
AC + (BAC minus EV) = 555,000 dollars
Answer: a. When cost and schedule performance both affect the remaining work, EAC = AC + (BAC - EV) / (CPI x SPI) = 275,000 + 280,000 / (0.80 x 0.88) = 275,000 + 280,000 / 0.704, or about 672,700 dollars. The other formulas either ignore schedule performance entirely or assume the overrun will not recur.
11. A project's CPI was 1.02 two months ago, 0.99 last month, and 0.96 this month. Looking at the direction of these three data points rather than just the current value is an example of what?
Root cause analysis
Earned value analysis
Variance analysis
Trend analysis
Answer: d. Trend analysis looks at several periods to see which direction a measure is moving; a CPI of 0.96 alone looks unremarkable, but a steady decline across three periods reveals something structurally degrading. Variance analysis only measures the gap at one point in time.
12. Hours charged by the crew and units installed this week, before anyone has analyzed what they mean, are best described as:
Work performance reports
Work performance data
Work performance baseline
Work performance information
Answer: b. Raw, unanalyzed observations such as hours charged and units installed are work performance data. Once analyzed in context, such as CPI, SPI, and forecasts, it becomes work performance information, and once packaged for a specific audience it becomes a work performance report.
13. The final total cost of a project, tallied after the project is complete, is an example of what kind of indicator?
Leading indicator
Lagging indicator
Control threshold
Trend indicator
Answer: b. A lagging indicator confirms an outcome after the fact, such as final cost or units delivered, and cannot be used to steer the work still ahead. Leading indicators, such as defect rates or a cycle time trend, are predictive and are what a project manager actually acts on.
14. A GCHS team's cumulative flow diagram shows the "in inspection" band steadily widening over three weeks while the "complete" band stays flat. What does this indicate?
The team is finishing inspections faster than new items arrive
A bottleneck: work is arriving in that state faster than it is leaving it
WIP limits should be removed to speed the team up
Answer: c. A widening band on a cumulative flow diagram is the signature of a bottleneck, since items are queueing in that state rather than moving forward, and a flat completed band confirms nothing is finishing. The fix is usually to apply or tighten a WIP limit, not remove one.
Glossary
Planned value (PV)
The budgeted cost of the work scheduled to be done by a given point in time.
Earned value (EV)
The budgeted cost of the work actually completed, calculated as BAC times percent complete.
Actual cost (AC)
The money actually spent to produce the work performed to date.
Cost performance index (CPI)
EV divided by AC; below 1.0 means the project is over budget.
Schedule performance index (SPI)
EV divided by PV; below 1.0 means the project is behind schedule.
Estimate at completion (EAC)
The forecast total cost of the project given current performance.
To-complete performance index (TCPI)
The cost efficiency required on remaining work to hit a target budget, either the original BAC or the revised EAC.
Cumulative flow diagram (CFD)
A stacked chart showing how many work items sit in each workflow state over time, used to spot bottlenecks.